INSIDE THE LINES
MONDAY, APRIL 27
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Atlanta (1-2 SU and ATS) at (5) Miami (2-1 SU and ATS)
The surging Heat look to push the Hawks to the brink of elimination when these divisional rivals resume their best-of-7 series with Game 4 at American Airlines Arena.
Miami pounded Atlanta 107-78 Saturday as a four-point home chalk, the third blowout in as many games in this series – the Hawks rolled 90-64 in Game 1 at home, and the Heat posted a 108-93 Game 2 win on the road. On Saturday, Dwyane Wade had 29 points, eight assists and seven rebounds, and Jermaine O’Neal (22 points, 10 rebounds) and Udonis Haslem (12 points, 13 rebounds) each had double-doubles. Miami is now 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in its last six starts.
Atlanta couldn’t get any of its scorers going Saturday, with Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and Al Horford all topping out at 13 points, and Joe Johnson – who led the team in the regular season at 21.4 ppg – managing just 10. The Hawks got outshot 46.9 percent to 36.9 percent and were outrebounded 48-35. Atlanta is now 4-10 ATS in its last 14 outings.
The Hawks continue to hold a slim 4-3 SU edge against Miami for the season, but the Heat are 4-3 ATS. Going back further, Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 battles with Atlanta, including 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Florida.
Miami is 29-13 SU (21-20-1 ATS) in South Beach this season, while Atlanta is a dismal 16-26 SU (21-21 ATS) on the highway.
Along with their current 5-1 ATS uptick overall, the Heat are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home, 4-0 on one day of rest, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-2 as a chalk of less than five points and 5-1 against Southeast Division foes. However, they are also carrying ATS skids of 1-4 as a playoff chalk and 21-43-3 following a SU win.
The Hawks, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-5 overall, 0-5 as a pup, 0-4 as a road ‘dog, 1-6 against winning teams, 3-8 against the Eastern Conference, 2-5 after a non-cover and 1-4 after a day off.
The over for Miami is on rolls of 14-5-1 at home and 7-3 against the East, but the under for the Heat is on streaks of 7-1 against winning teams, 7-2 after a SU win (including the last four in a row) and 13-3-1 with the Heat laying less than five points in the playoffs. For Atlanta, the under is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 with the Hawks as a ‘dog and 6-2 in the Southeast Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of seven meetings this year – with Saturday’s contest barely staying under the 186½-point posted price – and the under is 6-2 in the last eight battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) at (7) New Orleans (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
The Hornets, who got back on track Saturday, hope to tie up this opening-round postseason series when they once again entertain the Nuggets in Game 4 at New Orleans Arena.
After suffering two straight blowout losses at Denver, New Orleans held on for a 95-93 Game 3 victory, winning a physical contest that featured 58 fouls. Chris Paul had 32 points, 12 assists and five rebounds, and David West had 19 points and nine rebounds. The Hornets ended a four-game SU losing skid, but they failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite skid. Not only have they yet to get the cash in this series, but they’re 4-7 ATS in their last 11 overall (3-8 SU).
Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets with 25 points in Game 3, but point guard Chauncey Billups (16 points) finally cooled off Saturday after scoring 36 and 31 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2. Denver lost for just the third time in its last 14 starts (10-4 ATS) but still moved to 3-0 ATS in this series. Also, the Nuggets remain on a 16-4 SU run (12-8 ATS).
Denver is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS against New Orleans this season, cashing in five of the last six meetings, including the last four in a row. The favorite is on a 6-2 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the home team is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, though the Nuggets have gotten the money in their last two outings in the Big Easy.
New Orleans is 29-13 SU (19-22-1 ATS) at home this season. Denver, which hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and is still just 6-24 SU in its last 30 playoff contests, is 21-21 SU (22-20 ATS) on the road this year.
The Hornets remains on a bundle of pointspread purges, including 2-6 overall, 0-6 against the Northwest Division, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 after a SU win, 2-8 against the Western Conference and 2-7 laying points. However, New Orleans remains on positive ATS runs of 8-3 as a playoff chalk and 8-2 when laying less than five points in the postseason.
The Nuggets have cashed in four of their last five starts dating to the regular season and are on further positive ATS streaks of 11-4 overall, 11-3 against the West, 10-3 against winning teams, 4-1 after a day off, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 5-0 against the Southwest Division. But they still carry negative ATS runs of 3-13 as a playoff underdog and 3-8 in first-round playoff games.
The under for New Orleans is on stretches of 15-7 overall, 8-2 at home, 10-4 with the Hornets favored, 7-2 with the Hornets as a home chalk and 9-2 coming off a SU win. Likewise, the under for Denver is on rolls of 6-1 on the road, 20-7 in first-round playoff games, 20-8 with the Nuggets getting points and 17-4 with the Nuggets as a playoff underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(8) Utah (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Lakers return to the Staples Center looking to put the finishing touches on their first-round series against the Jazz, who face a win-or-go-home situation in Game 5.
After suffering a last-second 88-86 loss as a two-point road favorite in Game 3 on Thursday, Los Angeles bounced back with a dominating effort in Game 4 on Saturday, rolling to a 108-94 win as a five-point road chalk. Kobe Bryant led the way with 38 points – 20 more than he had in his team’s Game 3 loss – while Lamar Odom (10 points, 15 rebounds) and Pau Gasol (13 points, 10 boards) contributed double-doubles. The Lakers, who shot 52 percent from the floor Saturday, took control by outscoring the Jazz 68-44 in the second and third quarters.
Los Angeles has now won 10 of its last 12 games overall, but is just 7-5 ATS during this stretch. Additionally, Phil Jackson’s squad is riding an eight-game home winning streak and is 15-1 in its last 16 at Staples Center, but only 8-8 ATS.
Utah once again got stellar performances from point guard Deron Williams (23 points, 13 assists) and power forward Carlos Boozer (23 points, 16 rebounds) in Game 4, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the team’s fourth loss in its last five games, all against the Lakers. The Jazz are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests overall, including five straight losses on the road (1-4 ATS). Stretching back even further, Jerry Sloan’s squad is in slumps of 3-10 SU and 6-16 ATS.
By winning Game 4 in Salt Lake City, the Lakers ended a six-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry (all coming this season). Still, the host has taken 11 of the last 13 head-to-head battles and is 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 series clashes. Overall, going back to Game 5 of last year’s playoff series between these squads, Los Angeles is 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) against the Jazz and it has defeated Utah 11 straight times at Staples Center (9-2 ATS). Finally, the favorite has gotten the money in five of the last seven meetings.
For the season, the Lakers are 38-5 in their building but just 21-22 ATS. The Jazz are 15-28 on the road (18-25 ATS), including 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS in 15 road games against Western Conference playoff teams.
Utah is still on ATS surges of 10-5 in first-round playoff games, 10-4 when coming off a double-digit home loss and 19-7 on Monday. After that, though, the pointspread trends are all negative, including 4-12 overall, 1-4 on the road, 5-16 as an underdog, 2-14 as a road pup, 4-11 against the Western Conference and 4-14 against teams with a winning record.
Games 3 and 4 in Salt Lake stayed under the total, snapping a string of eight consecutive “overs” in this rivalry. Still, the over is 19-8 in the last 27 series clashes and 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles (5-0 in the last five).
Additionally, as it pertains to the total, Utah remains on “over” runs of 10-4 overall, 9-0 on the road 8-2 against winning teams, 9-4 versus the Western Conference, 35-19 versus the Pacific Division, 20-6-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on Monday. Finally, the Lakers’ “over” streaks include 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-2 against the Northwest Division, 8-2 versus teams with a winning record, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-0 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (11-7) at N.Y. Mets (8-10)
The suddenly freefalling Marlins get their first look at new Citi Field when they send Anibal Sanchez (1-1, 2.50 ERA) to the mound against the Mets’ John Maine (0-2, 7.47) in the opener of a three-game series between N.L. East rivals.
Florida started the season 11-1 but it has followed that up with six consecutive losses, including Sunday’s ugly 13-2 home setback to the Phillies. The Marlins’ slide began with a three-game sweep at Pittsburgh and continued this weekend when they got swept by Philadelphia, giving up 26 runs, In fact, Florida has surrendered 44 runs during its slump. Still, the Marlins are on impressive streaks of 6-0 as an underdog, 20-7 against N.L. East rivals and 7-3 on the road.
New York failed to complete a three-game sweep of Washington at home when it got blitzed 8-1 on Sunday. The Mets have dropped five of their last seven and have yet to win more than two straight games this season, and they’re only 5-4 in their new ballpark. They’re also just 5-13 in their last 18 games on Monday and 1-5 in their last six against right-handed starters.
Florida took two of three from the Mets in South Beach earlier this month, but the teams have split their last 20 meetings since the start of last season.
Sanchez suffered his first loss of the season Tuesday at Pittsburgh, falling 3-2 despite giving up just the three runs in seven innings. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in the road in two starts, but Florida has lost eight of his last 10 starts on the highway and seven of his last 10 against divisional foes.
Sanchez’s first start of the season came against the Mets on April 10, and he yielded just four hits and three walks in five scoreless innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 5-4 win. For his career, he’s 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in four starts against New York, with Florida going 3-1.
Maine’s 2009 debut came against Sanchez on April 10 and he also went just five innings, allowing two runs and two hits. Since then, however, the veteran right-hander has gotten lit up in two outings, allowing 11 runs (all earned), 14 hits and eight walks in 10 2/3 innings, losing 6-5 to the Padres at home and 5-2 at St. Louis on Wednesday.
The Mets are 0-5 in Maine’s last five trips to the mound since last year (all as a favorite), but they’ve won 23 of his last 30 against N.L. East rivals. Also, despite the April 10 loss in Florida, Maine is still 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against the Fish.
Seven of the last eight Mets-Marlins battles have stayed under the total. Also, Florida is on “under” streaks of 9-1 as an underdog, 4-0 with Sanchez on the mound overall and 5-1-1 when Sanchez pitches on the road. New York sports “under” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 7-1-1 against the N.L. East.
On the flip side, the over is 11-4-3 in Maine’s last 18 starts overall, 8-0-1 in his last nine starts at home, 4-1-1 in Maine’s last six against the Marlins, 10-3-3 in the Mets’ last 16 games on Monday and 15-6-2 in Florida’s last 23 Monday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-9) at Detroit (10-8)
After getting swept by the hated Red Sox in Fenway Park over the weekend, the Yankees look for ace C.C. Sabathia (1-1, 4.81) to get them back on track in the opener of a three-game series against the Tigers. Detroit is set to hand the ball to slumping veteran Justin Verlander (0-2, 9.00).
New York took a three-game winning streak to Boston, only to get outscored 25-16 in losing three straight, including Sunday’s 4-1 setback. The Yankees, who have surrendered 75 runs in their last nine games, are now 5-7 on the road this season, and they’ve lost 11 of their last 14 Monday contests. On the bright side, the Bronx Bombers are on runs of 21-11 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1 as road chalk, 10-4 against the Central Division and 17-9 when playing on grass.
The Tigers return home after completing a nine-game road trip with back-to-back wins in Kansas City (9-1 on Saturday, 3-2 on Sunday). Jim Leyland’s team went 5-4 on the trip and has won four of its first five home games in 2009. Otherwise, though, Detroit is on slides of 19-40 as an underdog, 6-13 versus southpaw starters, 1-4 against the A.L. East, 0-5 on Monday and 6-21 in series openers.
The road team won five of the six meetings between these teams last season, with the Tigers taking the season series 4-2. Detroit has won seven of the last 10 against the Yankees since 2007.
The last time Sabathia was on the mound, New York needed 14 innings to beat the A’s 9-7 at home, but the hefty lefty was rocked for seven runs (six earned) in 6 2/3 innings. Sabathia has just one quality start in his first four trips to the mound in pinstripes. In his other three outings, he’s given up 14 runs (13 earned) in 16 2/3 innings (7.02 ERA).
Going back to his days with the Indians, Sabathia is 13-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 26 lifetime starts against Detroit (7-2, 3.80 ERA in 11 outings at Comerica Park). However, in one start against the Tigers last year in Cleveland, the southpaw gave up nine runs in four innings, losing 13-2.
Verlander has gotten off to an even worse start than Sabathia, giving up 24 runs (21 earned) on 27 hits and nine walks in 21 innings. On Wednesday in Los Angeles, he surrendered seven runs in five innings, but the Tigers bailed him out in a 12-10 victory. Going back to last season, Verlander has gone 10 straight starts without a quality outing (at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer).
Verlander’s only decent start this season came at home, when he held Texas to three runs (one earned) on two hits in five innings, with Detroit winning 4-3. He’s 2-1 with a 6.63 ERA in four career regular-season starts against the Yankees. The Tigers are 13-5 in Verlander’s last 18 efforts against teams from the A.L. East, but otherwise with Verlander on the mound, Detroit is mired in slumps of 0-5 on Monday and 2-7 when he’s an underdog.
The Yankees are on “over” streaks of 4-1 against right-handed starters, 4-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-1 on Monday. Meanwhile, Detroit has topped the total in six of its last seven on Monday and with Verlander pitching, it is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 8-0 on Monday, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 5-0 when he faces the Yankees.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
